Yikes…

I would have thought I’d had enough of these sorts of mental torture after reading Inevitable Illusions by Massimo Piatelli-Palmarini. However, I had to stop and work through this a few times when I discovered it on the website of the Montreal Economic Institute:

Question: Suppose that three alternatives can be put before the Québec voters: alternative A is the constitutional status quo; alternative B is a renewed federalism with more powers to the Québec government; alternative C is the separation of Québec from Canada. Is it possible that, even if each voter is individually rational, the majority would cycle between A and C – i.e., would choose both a united Canada (alternative A) and an independent Québec (alternative C)?

Hint: Here, rationality means transitive preferences: if, or example, a voter prefers A to B and B to C, he will prefer A to C.

Answer: Yes. The electorate will not necessarily be irrational, but it may very well be. To see this, assume that the electorate is made of three equal sub-groups of voters: the Xs are centrists who prefer B to A to C; the Ys are separatists who prefer C to B to A; and the Zs, afraid of “political uncertainty” generated by the unstable middle, prefer A to C to B. It is easy to see that, if the electorate is presented with a choice between A and B, the majority (two thirds in the present example) will vote for B. Similarly, if the choice put to the voters is between B and C, the majority will chose C. We would tend to conclude that the electorate, which prefers C to B and B to A, would rationally prefer C to A. Now, if we ask the electorate to vote on C and A, it can be seen that the majority will chose A – as both the Xs and the ’s prefer A to C. Thus the voters prefer both separation (C) to the status quo (A), and the status quo (A) to separation (C).




You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Comments are closed.